In order for macroeconomic research to be successful, it must be able to

• Empirically identify fundamental shocks to the economy in real time
• Explain how the economy adjusts to those shocks

The latter seems to be the primary goal of most macroeconomists, but I don’t think that’s particularly helpful unless you can do the former. Macroeconomics has to be helpful to central banks, governments, firms, and consumers in order to have value, and that isn’t possible if you are only able to look at the data after several years have passed and tell a story about what might have been going on.

Note: I’m not saying macroeconomists should have predicted the financial crisis. You don’t blame the plumber if you have a water leak in your house, but you expect a plumber to be able to diagnose the problem quickly, and follow that up with some solutions to fix the problem. The goal of macroeconomic research should be the same.